According to Ancient Egyptian mythology, the god Ra sailed his ship along the celestial Nile, which corresponded to the great royal river that gave rise to one of the earliest civilizations in the world. The great temple of Luxor, dedicated to Ra –as well as to another deity, Amon– together with the nearby enclave of Karnak, near Thebes, the ancient capital of the pharaohs, together with the great pyramids and the Sphinx of Gizeh in Cairo, constitute some of the most important archaeological legacies that reflect its greatness.

Today tourism, and the activities related to it, have become one of Egypt’s most important economic engines, contributing a total of 12.8% to the national GDP and 11.6% of total jobs of the active population. Tourism policy, which originally focused on enhancing archaeological tourism around the Nile, has been diversifying in recent decades to make sun and beach tourism, mainly around Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikh on the Red Sea and Matrouh on the Mediterranean coast, one of the country’s biggest attractions.

In spite of Egypt’s enormous tourism potential, with the number of international visitors doubling between 2004 and 2010, with a record high of 14.7 million foreign tourists, the events related to the Arab Spring in 2011 paralysed this growth trend and caused it to fall to its current figure of 10 million. In 2010, archaeological tourism attracted 3.2 million visitors in the vicinity of Luxor and Aswan, with 30% corresponding to national tourists and 70% to international tourists. According to the internal mobility patterns analysed along the corridor, these visitors generated almost 5 million trips in the study area. Approximately 65% of the tourists reached the area through the airports in Cairo, Luxor and Aswan, while the remaining 35% came from the Hurghada region on private buses operated by tourist agencies. However, these 2010 statistics could increase significantly if the country regains political and social stability.

One of the main design criteria that conditioned the alignment was to minimize crossings over the Nile

Aware of their potential and the importance of tourism for the economic recovery and development of Egypt, the government wants to boost the production sector and is promoting a new model in which high speed enhances the synergies between cultural and leisure tourism, catalysing long-distance internal mobility within the country. The Ministry of Transport is studying two large corridors connecting the capital city of Cairo with Alexandria to the north, and to the south along the Luxor-Aswan axis and the Red Sea coast to the east. The implementation of high speed will transform Egyptian rail transport, offering connections with total travel times between key points similar to those of air travel, but with more regular service and expanded timetables, providing approximately 18 hours of daily service, plus punctuality and comfort at more competitive prices.

Egypt receives technical and financial support from the European Union to carry out its railway modernization plans. It is in this context that the collaboration agreement signed by the Egyptian minister of Transport and the Spanish minister of Economy and Competitiveness in April 2015, and the feasibility study carried out by Ineco with Adif and Renfe for the north-south corridor, financed from the Fund for the Internationalization of Enterprise (FIEM), are framed. The objective of the study, on which a multidisciplinary team with professionals of different specialities worked for 14 months, was to provide the Egyptian government with a useful tool for decision making in the process of implementing high speed in the country.

The study area

The feasibility study covers the corridor between Cairo and Luxor, and the areas from Luxor to Aswan and Hurghada. The proposed high-speed line comprises 650 km between Cairo and Luxor, an additional 175 km to Aswan, and 262 km between Luxor and Hurghada, totalling 1,087 kilometres of line and 6 stations: Cairo, 6th of October, Minya, Asyut, Luxor, Aswan and Hurghada. According to data from 2015, the population of the study area totalled 13.1 million inhabitants (14.9% of the country’s population) and mobility between the different defined areas is estimated at 38.5 million trips a year. In terms of the modal distribution, 29% of the trips are made in private shared vehicles, 28% in private vehicles, 23% by railway, 17% by bus and the remaining 3% by plane. This demand for transport translates into a market of some 4.1 billion Egyptian pounds annually. In terms of door-to-door travel times, specifically for the Cairo-Luxor connection, the minimum time for the road alternative is more than 7 hours, rail more than 10.5 hours, and plane 3.5 hours. The quantification and characterization of the mobility in the study area was based on the analysis of the available information and the results obtained from a campaign of surveys and traffic counts.

Tourism, the X factor

The success of the high-speed line will depend to a large extent on the recovery and enhancement of international tourism, which according to the demand forecast model would account for between 60% and 80% of the total number of passengers, depending on the scenario. The model takes into account three possible demand scenarios, high, medium and low, in two traveller segments: local and international. In order to prepare them, we took into account the forecasts of the Egyptian government in terms of GDP growth and also analysed different hypotheses regarding the recovery and development of international tourism.

The objective of the study was to provide the Egyptian Government with a useful tool for decision making in the implementation of high-speed rail

In the most optimistic scenario, the Ministry of Tourism expects to reach 20 million foreign tourists in 2020, which means an annual growth rate between 2014 and 2026 of 9%, much higher than GDP growth for that same period. In this context, passenger demand for the high-speed line would be 6.3 million per year. In the average scenario, visitor levels are expected to return to 2010 levels in 2026, with annual growth of 3.4%, very similar to GDP growth, and 3.3 million passengers on the new line. The least optimistic estimate places tourist recovery a decade later, in 2036, with annual growth of 1.8%, and 2.7 million high-speed travellers.

Technical feasibility

The technical feasibility analysis is based on the definition of the alignment of the future railway infrastructure and a comprehensive design at a scale of 1:25,000. For this purpose, different alternatives were studied at a scale of 1:50,000, and the most favourable one was selected applying a multi-criteria analysis: the optimal combination between factors such as construction costs, technical complexity (evaluated based on the length of structures and tunnels and the type of terrain), environmental conditions –giving particular importance to the preservation of the archaeological heritage–, the length of the route and the travel times obtained from the simulations.

The main design criteria that conditioned the alignment were based on minimizing crossings on the Nile River, avoiding mountainous areas and lands with high geotechnical risk –with high clay, saline or gypsum content– as well as areas with archaeological and environmental protection or impacts on farmland. The two intermediate stations
–Minya and Asyut– were selected for being the most populated of the route, as well as for their future growth potential according to the plans of the Egyptian government. With regard to the design speeds, on the corridor between Cairo, Luxor and Aswan, under very favourable topographic conditions, the maximum design speed is 350 km/h, while a maximum design speed of 250 km/h was chosen for the stretch between Luxor and Hurghada.

Once the most favourable alternative was identified, the Ineco team adjusted the alignment in greater detail, taking into account the analysis of the geotechnical and environmental factors, as well as comments received from the Egyptian government on future areas of development that could interfere with it. The geotechnical quality of the land of the proposed route is generally medium to high, except for some stretches, and does not interfere with protected natural areas or known archaeological areas. The potential risk of the track interference caused by desert sand was also analysed, and it it determined that part of the track design would use slab track. All these aspects will be addressed in more detail in later design phases.

The technical feasibility analysis also included the location and preliminary design of structures and tunnels, as well as passenger stations.

As for the operating plan, which is based on the demand of the scenarios analysed, the model recommended to the Egyptian government is based on trains with a maximum speed of 250 km/h, mainly for the following reasons: lower investment cost, approximately 30% less per unit, and lower operating costs –up to 25% less, based on experience in Spain. Also, the conclusions of the demand model show that, due to the fact that the travel motive of the potential passengers is predominantly leisure and the value of time is comparatively less than in the case of forced mobility, total travel times achieved with trains with a maximum speed of 250/h would be competitive. As an example, the Cairo-Luxor connection would be covered in 3 hours, requiring a commercial speed of 240 km/h.

The numbers

The study involves development of the high-speed line in three phases. The first would include the stretch between the capital and Luxor, which would begin service in 2026; Luxor-Aswan, in 2031 and the route to Hurghada, in 2036. The study covered an evaluation period of 50 years (from 2021 to 2070), which is the norm in profitability analyses. The socio-economic and financial profitability models were based on the inputs derived from the technical design, such as CAPEX and OPEX, as well as on the results obtained from the demand model: travellers attracted and mobility matrices with and without the project. It also took into account the specific conditions of Egypt’s macroeconomic framework and potential financing sources and conditions.

Summing up, it should be noted that the segment with the best results in terms of socio-economic and financial profitability is Cairo-Luxor-Aswan. The final report recommends that detailed studies focus on this corridor first, considering the results associated with the average demand scenario as more realistic. In regard to financing, the viability of the project would be contingent upon the ability of the Egyptian government to adapt to the proposed capital and debt structure, opting for multilateral financing sources in the pre-commissioning phase. In macroeconomic terms, it is estimated that during the construction phase, up to 9,800 direct jobs per year would be generated and total production of goods and services would increase by 13.9%. Once the line goes into operation, the impact on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be 2.3%.

The creation of a public enterprise, preferably attached to the Ministry of Transport, is recommended to manage and operate the high-speed line. This entity would be in charge of the development, acquisition and integration of the components of the system, as well as of the overall coordination of the project. Once the line was operational, it would evolve into a control and management authority. On its part, the private sector would be responsible for the design, construction and maintenance of infrastructure and systems, the supply and maintenance of rolling stock, as well as traffic control and operation of services.

As a final recommendation, although the Cairo-Alexandria corridor was not included in the study, the Egyptian government should plan the high-speed network as a whole, in order to take advantage of the economies of scale generated by the more important corridors.

The stations

Computer rendering of the Luxor station.

One of the keys to the success of high speed lies in the location and functionality of the stations, so the study proposes their location and  preliminary design, taking the following criteria into account:

• Location outside the city centre to minimize complications and additional costs generated in urban areas (expropriation, tunnelling, vibrations, etc.). In the case of the Cairo station, the viability of the future connection with the Cairo-Alexandria corridor was taken into account.
• Accessibility and intermodality with other complementary modes of transport, to guarantee competitive access and dispersion times, minimizing door-to-door travel times.
• Development by phases, based on the evolution of demand in the period taken into account (50 years). The total area required includes the conditions of maximum development.
• Design from modular plans that allow strategies for sustainable growth and minimal disruption of station operation.
• Definition of sizes and types based on the needs of travellers getting on and off at rush hour, defined by the demand study and based on international experience, and the specific railway functionality for each location.
• Dimensioning of functional and operational areas of the stations and their auxiliary spaces (retail, services, facilities, etc.), seeking to provide a level of service suitable for the type of line proposed.
• Proposed type and size of outdoor areas (parking, bus stops and taxi, drop off & pick up areas) based on the study of methods of approaching and departing from the station, suggesting growth that is compatible with the development stages of the station.

Improvement of transport routes has been, since ancient times, a constant quest for the survival, wealth and development of peoples. With the creation of the European single market, having an interoperable transport network became one of the basic foundations to make economic relations between member states possible. The aim was to have modern infrastructure for the transportation of passengers and goods, held together by common legislation and technology that would exceed the simple juxtaposition of national roads. Thus began the trans-European transport routes, called TEN-T corridors, which comprise transport by road and railway, including waterways and seaports, as well as the airport network. Also in this category are smart transport management systems, like Galileo, the European system of satellite radionavigation, or the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS).

In the 1980s, the EU began to establish which priority routes where greatest management and financial efforts would be directed, with the aim of facilitating communications, mainly between the main seaports and the large industrial areas and logistics centres of EU countries. On the basis of the studies conducted came the nine major Core Network Corridors (CNC) which structure Europe. Due to Spain’s outlying geography within the European continent, two of the nine corridors run through it: the Atlantic Corridor and the Mediterranean Corridor.
Subsequently, European Union Regulation N.º 1315/2013 established the specific alignments and nodes that make up each corridor, as well as the technical requirements necessary to have a solidly structured, homogenous, multimodal network that provides the backbone of European mobility in place by 2030.

The studies on the Core Network Corridors, conducted by consortia of consulting companies in the Member States, include analysis of demand, traffic forecasts, identification of improvements to transport networks and services, environmental impact analysis, innovation methods, etc. The analyses of these studies enable the projects and means necessary to meet the technical requirements set out in European law to be established. This must be implemented by Member States under the supervision of the European Commission.

Studies and work plans for each corridor

In 2014, a total of 265 projects were identified for the Atlantic Corridor, of which approximately 40% were railway projects, 24% were ports and 23% intermodal. In the case of the Mediterranean Corridor, in the 2014 study, 300 projects were identified, of which 44% were railway projects and 20% involved ports.

Since 2015, the EU has promoted the preparation and implementation of new work plans with specific actions to give impetus to the Atlantic and Mediterranean corridors, two projects considered to be top priority, in which Ineco has participated very actively since the origins. Proof of this is to be found in the previous studies on the EU corridors, as well as studies of the Vitoria-Dax, San Sebastián-Bayonne and Figueres-Perpignan railway connections, and the current studies of the Atlantic Corridor and the Mediterranean Corridor up until the end of 2017.

When the lists of projects and methods of each corridor are drawn up and the targets set out by the European Commission are met, they must be put up for political consensus among the various Member States, central governments and the regions, as well as cooperation and understanding between the various state and private agents involved. This is why the Corridor Fora and Working Groups, regular meetings that take place at the European Commission’s headquarters in Brussels, to which all stakeholders are invited, are very important. In the Corridor Fora, the consultants present the main progress from the corridor studies and open debate is held on the most important issues, offering attendees the possibility to respond or make comments. In the case of the Working Groups, specific technical issues are discussed, for example border matters, aspects relating to urban nodes, ports, logistics terminals, etc. in sessions with fewer participants, directed solely to the agents involved in each case. Both in the Corridor Fora and the Working Groups, the role of the consulting teams is fundamental, as they are coordinators and integrators to ensure that the studies are conducted holistically, prioritising the objectives of the corridor over individual interests.

Projects and European subsidies

The projects selected for each corridor and the European subsidies awarded to them are decisions of key importance both for the actors involved in international trade –infrastructure managers, shippers and logistics operators– and for the economic development of the Member States. Good evidence of the interest surrounding this is provided by the 2,800 transport companies and the 22 European ministers who attended the TEN-T Days 2016 conference, held in Rotterdam in June. The European Commission’s actions have objectives in the short (2020), medium (2030) and long term (2050), and 2050 is the final year of development, by which goods transported by land are projected to increase more than 50%.

Both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea have enabled distances to other continents to be shortened thanks to their sea routes, made possible by large engineering works such as the Panama and Suez Canals. The European ports of both port fronts compete to have the infrastructure and logistics terminals necessary to assume the load of the Panamax and Post Panamax vessels which transport goods containers from Asia, Africa and America.
To manage this entire potential load, the ports require installations, technology and the land connections necessary for its rapid distribution to the population and industrial centres in the interior. At the same time, the EU created the concept of “highways of the sea”, short-distance maritime routes between ports that assist in decongesting roads. Finally, the corridor work plans seeks to gradually implement the use of clean energies and fuels that enable pollutant gas emissions to the atmosphere to be reduced.

The Mediterranean Corridor

The Mediterranean Corridor comprises more than 3,000 kilometres, which connect the eastern half of the Iberian Peninsula with the Mediterranean side of France, north of Italy, Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary, before finishing at the border with Ukraine. According to official data in 2014, the regions along the Mediterranean Corridor comprise 18% of the population of Europe and contribute 17% of gross domestic product.

Mediterranean Corridor

Functionally, one of the most significant challenges of this corridor is efficiently connecting the main seaports of the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Barcelona, Tarragona, Valencia, Cartagena and Algeciras) with central Europe. As such, the aim of the most important activities is to connect Spain’s ports with an international standard gauge of 1,435 mm, alter the rail network so that trains of up to 740 m can run, and remove bottlenecks. Many of these actions, those which affect the section between Castellbisbal and Almería, are currently in progress and/or the project preparation stage, in which Ineco is also participating actively. Another key aim is to build an east-west multimodal transport axis.

Additionally, the construction of an east-west multimodal transport axis has been planned to benefit and enable economic relations in southern Europe, where some of the most important urban centres are located: Madrid, Valencia, Barcelona, Marseille, Lyon, Turin, Milan, Venice, Ljubljana, Zagreb and Budapest. To make this east-west axis come to fruition, the major projects centre around eliminating the current lack of continuity in border crossings between countries, especially between Spain and France (Figueres-Perpignan), France and Italy (Lyon-Turin) and Italy and Slovenia (Trieste-Divaca). The future high speed Lyon-Turin section involves building a 57-kilometre base tunnel, which will be one of the longest railway tunnels in the world. Base tunnels are one of the largest European investments to ensure the railway’s competitive advantage over travel by road and consequently a road-rail modal diversion in especially sensitive areas like the Pyrenees or the Alps, geographical obstacles that strongly condition this corridor.

The consortium commissioned to conduct the Mediterranean Corridor study comprises PwC, Ineco, SETEC and Panteia. PwC is the consortium leader and is responsible for maintaining an up-to-date list on projects worked on by Italy, Slovenia and Croatia. SETEC and Panteia are responsible for French and Hungarian matters, respectively. Ineco shares responsibility for keeping an up-to-date list of Spanish projects with PwC Spain, providing its railway and air transport experience. Spain is a key player in the Mediterranean Corridor, as 45% of the railway corridor traverses our country, spanning the Algeciras-Madrid-Barcelona-French border, Barcelona-Valencia-Almería and Almería-Antequera-Seville sections. Ineco also leads the part relating to innovation in task 3b of the study, in which expansion of the list of Mediterranean Corridor projects is analysed, paying attention to more cross-cutting aspects.

Since in the first studies presented in 2014, 300 projects were identified, the aims of the Mediterranean Corridor consortium members centre on defining, prioritising and estimating the most essential activities, among which what is sought is to enable goods to be transported by railway rather than by road. It is calculated that, with total implementation of the corridor in 2030, 40 million tonnes of goods could be transferred from road to railway.

The Atlantic Corridor

The Atlantic Corridor links the Iberian Peninsula ports of Algeciras, Sines, Lisbon, Leixões and Bilbao with Paris and Normandy, and continues to Strasbourg and Mannheim. It would therefore be an efficient export route for goods bound for eight seaports of the Core Network (Algeciras, Sines, Lisbon, Leixões, Bilbao, Bordeaux, Le Havre and Rouen) where the large global trade ships arrive from America and Asia (via the Panama Canal) and Africa and Asia from the Mediterranean (via the Suez Canal and the  Strait of Gibraltar). Additionally, the cities and logistics centres on the Atlantic Corridor route or its environs would benefit from the service of this corridor, enabling and stimulating their importance in international trade.

Atlantic Corridor

Ineco currently participates in the study of the Atlantic Corridor for the European Commission in a consortium led by Portuguese consultancy TIS together with the companies EGIS, Panteia, M-FIVE and BG21. In addition to providing the information relative to Spain, Ineco has a lead role in defining the list of Atlantic Corridor projects, a job that requires identifying and analysing corridor projects in progress or being planned, gathering information from the agents involved in the projects (in the case of Spain, we might highlight the Ministry of Public Works, ADIF, Puertos del Estado (Spanish State Ports), AENA, the Autonomous Regions, private agents, etc.) on the projects’ scope, timeframe and investment needs, a key aspect to specify and establish subsequently the prioritisation of activities in the corridor.

The Atlantic Corridor has an excellent network of roads, which are almost all highways. There is partial interoperability of the system of road tolls, with various projects underway to fully implement them in the corridor. As for rail transport, some aspects such as single-track lines, the lack of electrification, or Spain and Portugal’s distinct track gauge and its alteration to match the international standard gauge (1,435 mm), are significant obstacles to the development of goods transportation. Also worth noting as other hurdles to climb in the corridor’s railway network are the partial absence of the ERTMS and the need to adapt infrastructure to allow trains of up to 740 m.

The European Commission has emphasised the need to solve access from ports to other modes of transport, particularly the railway. At the port of Algeciras –the largest of the entire corridor by volume– reports underline the essential importance of the electrification of the line and alteration of tracks and terminals to admit the aforementioned 740-metre freight trains.

Other proposals are the improved navigability of the River Seine between Paris and Benelux and access to the railways from all airports along the corridor. Only Paris-CDG (Roissy) Airport meets all the requirements of Regulation (EU) N.º 1315/2013 and has a long-distance railway link. Paris Orly and Madrid Barajas Airports link to the suburban railway and metro; those of Porto and Lisbon only with the metro; and Bilbao and Bordeaux do not have railway links.