When you feed your pet, buy a bouquet of fresh flowers, dress a salad or fill up your vehicle, you are at the end of a long chain that could have begun far away. Some products –certainly those such as flowers– will have arrived from their place of origin by air; others, such as salt, animal feed or fuel, may have arrived by sea, road or rail.

But in all cases, in order to satisfy the needs of the end consumer, these products need to travel through the supply chain in the best conditions of safety and quality, and in the shortest time possible. The World Trade Organization emphasizes that logistics is particularly crucial “for the electronics and pharmaceutical sectors, fashion garments and motor vehicles, where time is an important factor.”

The logistics chain covers various economic sectors and all stages of production and distribution, from the supply of raw material to the arrival of the finished product to the end consumer. In this complex network land, sea and air transport infrastructure is especially important, and they must also be interconnected as efficiently as possible. This is the function of transport centres, the hubs of the supply chain: they receive large volumes of goods and are modal interchange points, where the cargo goes from one mode of transport to another, from one phase of the supply chain to another; for example, bulk cargo is packaged, if it is solid, or distributed in trucks or tankers if it is liquid.

Located at road and rail nodes, airports and ports, logistics facilities can provide different services, depending on the type of centre in question: from simple modal interchange to services for the storage, distribution and consolidation of goods (bringing together cargo from different suppliers that has the same destination reduces costs), sanitary control and customs, labelling, packaging, parking, administrative management, electronic traceability, procedures and permits, etc.

In order for the transport chain to flow, and keep logistics costs –which according to the World Trade Organization can account for 20% of the total cost of production in the countries of the OECD– from going through the roof, logistics areas and terminals must have sufficient capacity to meet the demand and be strategically situated in the territory, as well as correctly dimensioned and managed. Since these are large and complex facilities, they require major investment to build them or to expand existing ones.

But this is only the first step: the key is to determine whether they will be profitable in the long term, which requires the rigorous analysis of all foreseeable costs, expenses and revenue. To do this, several factors must be taken into account, such as estimated traffic, land prices and financial formulas, among other things, which will reveal whether the project will be profitable or not. Hence the relevance of this type of study, covering operational, technical, economic and financial aspects, as a basic decision-making tool for project developers, both public and private.

Ineco’s experience

Since the 1990s, Ineco has performed a multitude of feasibility studies, both inside and outside Spain, for all types of transport infrastructure projects related to goods, both new construction and expansions and renovations, including multimodal corridors, business parks, industrial areas and logistics terminals.

The latter include the projects carried out in recent years for the Spanish Ministry of Public Works and several Regional Governments, such as the Basque Country, Andalusia, Asturias and Castilla-La Mancha, planning the construction of several logistics areas in their territories.

Also in Spain, in 2010 Ineco carried out a feasibility study for the new business park of the Foronda Airport (Vitoria) in the Basque Country, which specializes in air freight, and before that, several projects related to the intermodal logistics platform in Zaragoza (PLAZA) that connects air, land and rail transport. Between 2011 and 2012, on behalf of the Ministry of Public Works, the company analysed the rail connections of the Spanish ports, the existing traffic and the improvements that were required.

Overseas, Ineco is currently performing the feasibility study of the future logistics platform ‘Zona ILCO’ in the region of Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas in Ecuador. Furthermore, in 2012, on behalf of the Ecuadorian Government, it concluded the 2013-2037 Strategic Mobility Plan, analysing all of the country’s transport infrastructure from the intermodal point of view, and proposing, among other possibilities, the construction of new ports and the extension of a landlord management model similar to the one implemented in Spain were included (see IT48).

In 2012, the company carried out an economic and financial study in Colombia to determine the profitability of adapting the Santiago Vila Airport, in the city of Flandes (Tolima), for international air freight (see IT49). In Medellín, in 2010, Ineco concluded a technical, legal and financial study to determine the feasibility of the reopening of the old railway line of Valle de Aburrá and adapting it for the transportation of passengers, goods and solid urban waste.

In Latin America it also carried out a feasibility study of the  Corinto–Monkey Point Multimodal Railway Corridor, Nicaragua (2013), which included the preliminary designs and alignment of two rail port terminals and a multi-modal terminal near the capital, Managua. Other recent international work includes the 2012 project for the Public Authority for Industry (PAI), of Kuwait (see IT48): the company carried out the conceptual design and provided comprehensive advice for the tendering process for the project and work on a new 5,000 m² industrial area to the southeast of the capital.

The Maltese islands, with their extremely high population density (the highest in the EU and the eighth highest in the world), suffer congestion problems and traffic jams due to the extensive use of private passenger cars. The islands have no railway network, however maritime and aviation are important modes of transport both to and from mainland Europe and between the islands. Croatia, on the continent, is almost 180 times larger than Malta by area, but has a far lower population density. The country’s highways, roads and railway lines are currently undergoing a process of renovation and modernisation, as are river transport routes on large inland waterways such as the Danube and the Sava.

There are significant differences between Malta and Croatia in terms of their size and population; however both are currently in the process of planning the future growth of their transport networks, crucial for ensuring the proper working of their economies.

Malta and Croatia commissioned the services of Ineco experts, who prepared their respective National Transport Models as a crucial part of their medium and long-term planning strategies. In Malta, the National Master Plan was also developed

Both countries commissioned the services of Ineco experts, who prepared their respective National Transport Models to support their medium and long-term planning strategies. In Malta, the National Master Plan was also developed.

Using the leading software tools on the market (Aimsun, Legion, Visum, EMME, TransCAD, CUBE, WITNESS, HCS, ArcGIS and Viriato, among others), the transport modelling consultant team of the company develop models which depict reality and enable forecasts to be made, offering a clear, simple representation of complex realities. In this way, governments and transport authorities avail of a highly effective decision-making tool and are also able to compare the possible effects of these decisions in different scenarios and time horizons.

And there’s more. Models and simulations can take many different forms and be developed at different scales, from the effects of a new traffic light at a crossroads, to the demand analysis of a new highway or airport affecting an entire region or a country. They can also serve a range of purposes, from estimating traffic or demand to identifying weaknesses in the design of all kinds of infrastructure and public spaces (for example, spaces causing queues or congestion in stations or which prevent the correct operation of ground handling vehicles on airport runways); they can even be used to study the punctuality of a high-speed railway line.

These examples are taken from some of Ineco’s real assignments from recent years, which also include “tailor-made” models for specific projects.

Malta

On the Maltese archipelago, which is made up of five islands (Malta, Gozo, Comino, Cominotto and Filfla, of which only the first three are inhabited), the most widely used form of transport is the private car. The level of car ownership in the country, at 759 vehicles per thousand people, is one of the highest in the European Union, as are the density of its road network, at 762 kilometres per 100 km², and its population density, at 1,325 people per km², compared to the European average of 117. And all of this in a territory of just 316 km².

In such a unique context, the Maltese government established the islands’ need for short, medium and long-term transport planning, which would require thorough preliminary analysis. In 2014, the through transport authority, Transport Malta, the government ran a public tender to carry out the analysis. The winning bidder was the consortium made up of Ineco and the Italian company Systematica with the support of the Maltese firm ADI Associates, tasked with developing the strategic environmental assessment of the proposed measures.

The consortium’s first task was the development of a model, using the specialised CUBE software. The model served as the support for the National Strategy and the Transport Master Plan 2025. All modes of transport (land, maritime and aviation; public and private) were analysed in different scenarios, “do-nothing” and “do-minimum”, within a range of timeframes.  The reference points used were the years 2020 and 2025, with 2050 also being used to provide a long-term view; a comparison was drawn between the effects of various changes to the transport network and services. The model particularly illustrates the effects of the tested measures on congestion, modal split and the external impacts of traffic (accidents, GHGs and pollutant emissions).

The laborious process of creating the model has assisted in accurately quantifying the issues currently affecting the different modes of transport and has provided understanding of their causes. The results are shown in the Transport Master Plan 2025 and the medium and long-term objectives of the National Transport Strategy 2050. The Plan compares four possible scenarios: “do-nothing”, “do-minimum” and the “do-something” scenarios “1” and “2”. The “do-something” interventions consist in measures to restrain the use of private cars and increased support public transport and alternative modes (walking, cycling, etc.), with the first proposing moderate restraints and the second being stricter. The purpose of these scenarios is to assess the combined effect of various measures on Malta’s transport system as a whole.

For example, data analysis reveals that congestion, especially on the five radial roads connecting the capital Valletta with the rest of the island, would be most greatly reduced in “do-something 2” scenario, the most restrictive option.

Croacia

After joining the European Union in July 2013, Croatia undertook to review and update its long-term transport plan, which dated from 1999. To that end, an international consortium of five companies (PTV Group, leading the consortium, and PNZ, Ineco, Promel and the University of Zagreb) was commissioned to prepare the National Transport Model for the Republic of Croatia, intended to accompany and support the development of the new National Transport Strategy.

The Croatian government, through its Ministry of Maritime Affairs, Transport and Infrastructure, would therefore possess a valuable tool supporting medium and long-term decision-making, for planning connections to the rest of the European Union and domestic transport. Work began in 2014 and the model was developed over the following 24 months. Using 2013 as a base year and with three forecast time horizons (2020, 2030 and 2040), all modes of passenger and freight transport (road, rail, public road transprot, non-motorised transport, maritime, inland waterways and air transport) were analysed under different scenarios with and without implementation of transport strategies, measures and projects in the transport network.

A multi-modal 4-step model with generation, distribution, mode choice and assignmet on the network for passenger and freight traffic was developed. Different approaches for both passenger and freight  traffic were used to better represent and model their particular characteristics. The simulation was fed with data such as the costs and travel times for different modes, socioeconomic data, road network capacity and passenger behaviour information, obtained through a household survey carried out specifically for the project in 2015. The survey revealed, for example, that different parts of the country have different travel behaviour patterns. On account of this, the model incorporated a distinction between the Continental and Adriatic regions.

For freight transport, the complexity and heterogeneity of the sector were taken into account. For this reason, a highly disaggregated approach was used to calculate freight volumes, based on the origin and destination of homogenous commodity types. The main input data were the transport network data, socio-economic data, the national production of each commodity, import and export data and operational and cost parameters, among others; models were developed for both domestic and external freight flows (including import, export and transit).

Once the model was calibrated and validated, the different timeframes of 2020, 2030 and 2040 were simulated in two scenarios: “do-minimum” scenario to point out the bottlenecks and gaps in the transport system, and “do-something” scenario including the measures proposed in the National Transport Strategy. Obtaining results such as traffic flows in the different networks, the volume/capacity, indicators of accessibility to major cities, etc. made it possible to assess, formulate and prioritise the influence of different strategic measures for effective and sustainable traffic development on the country.

The years 2015 and 2016 are being very intense for the development of Mwasalat. What actions have you completed so far?

During November 2015, occurring simultaneously with the celebration of 45th year of the Renaissance of Oman, a key milestone was achieved by the company: Mwasalat unveiled a new company identity and the spinal route of Muscat public transport system was implemented, while the existing routes were renovated with brand-new and modern fleet. This was the first step of a long process that will see a substantial number of routes being implemented in Muscat during the following years. The modernization of the company has not been limited only to urban transport in Muscat, Mwasalat intercity and international services were also improved as part of this renovation process with brand-new fleet with the highest levels of quality and safety.

The new Muscat services have changed the public transport landscape in the city, what has been the people’s reaction to the new services?

People’s response to the new bus services in Muscat has been very positive. Passengers are very satisfied with the new features in the bus. The buses are low-floor, air-conditioned and equipped with cameras and informative screens. From the demand’s point of view, the launch of these initiatives can be seen as a great success since public transport demand has substantially increased: more than 600,000 passengers used the Mwasalat service in Muscat in the first 70 days, averaging around 9,000 passengers every day. These figures contrast with the average of 3,500 passengers per day before the launch of the new services.

Regarding the future, what future actions is the company planning?

A number of ambitious plans are awaiting for the company such as the expansion of the city and intercity bus fleet in order to implement new urban bus routes in Muscat, to establish new urban bus routes in other strategic cities of the Sultanate and to reinforce or extend the intercity routes with new services to other destinations or greater frequencies for existing routes.

The new services are receiving a very positive response from passengers

Intelligent Transport System (ITS) is key element for the modernisation of the company. What ITS are you planning to implement?

We are planning to implement smart ticketing, passenger information systems, automated vehicle management systems, etc. All this initiatives will help to improve transport system and mobility, reduce traffic associated problem, enhance the economy and, finally, help to continue the economic and social development of the Sultanate of Oman.

Public transport sector is very particular in Oman, what challenges is the company facing in this sector?

The main challenges is the regulation of the sector. Mwasalat needs this regulation: firstly, to regulate the taxi sector so they become a professional and complementary activity to bus services; and secondly, to regulate the passenger land transport market, so the coexistence of public (Mwasalat) and private bus companies is achieved with adequate competence conditions. Fortunately, the work is under progress with the recently approved Land Transport Law that was elaborated by the Ministry of Transport and Communications, which is the first step to regulate the sector.

How would you assess Ineco’s work and what is its role in the development of Mwasalat?

Ineco is developing for Mwasalat a comprehensive Master Plan that will chart the road map for the company’s evolution into an international-class bus operator over the period 2016-2040. The Master Plan is aimed at transforming Mwasalat into a world-class public bus transport operator. We really appreciate the involvement, flexibility and know-how of the Ineco’s team working in this project. Ineco has successfully demonstrated in the past months that they are a team of highly qualified professionals that can bring international best practice tailored to our needs and context.

Oman aims for an urban and interurban transport system that is modern, efficient and sustainable, covering all modes of transport and driving the country’s social, economic and tourism development. With these objectives, Ineco is carrying out comprehensive advisory and consulting work in the country for the proper planning and implementation of the system.

The company has thus drafted the Bus Transport Strategic Plan for Mwasalat, the public transport operator, formerly known as ONTC (Oman National Transport Company). The Plan, drawn up in conjunction with Grupo Ruiz, includes an extensive programme of actions such as the deployment, already underway, of the public transport network of Muscat, the capital, the implementation of new urban transport services in other cities such as Salalah and Sohar, and the extension of the current interurban transport network. It also includes an infrastructure investment programme (bus stations, workshops, parking areas, etc.), the implementation of new management and operation service technologies and the definition of financial plans.

By 2014, Ineco had carried out a Public Transport Master Plan for Muscat for the Oman Ministry of Transport and Communications (see ITRANSPORTE 54), which set out, among other actions, to create a sole public transport authority, to gradually implement a network of new routes and to construct a reserved platform (bus lanes). The Plan also involved the Ministry of Transport and Communications as well as other public bodies and entities, such as the Royal  Oman Police, the Ministry of Tourism and the National Planning Council.

RELIABLE AND MODERN PUBLIC TRANSPORT

These projects have represented a milestone in the strategic planning of the country’s public transport system. They are the starting point where the Ministry of Transport and Communications, through Mwasalat, has begun to implement new routes and to renovate the fleet of buses.

The new phase is reflected in the complete overhaul of the company’s corporate image, which has been renamed Mwasalat, “transport” in Arabic, and has unveiled a new logotype, inspired by the sails of the dhows, traditional Omani sailing vessels, in reference to the future public transport network.

The goal over is to consolidate a reliable and modern public transport system

The new fleet’s first 40 urban buses have been running on the five new urban routes in the capital since last November, a great success among passengers. Equipped with the latest technology, these low-floor buses have an air conditioning system, extendable ramps for wheel chairs and passenger-information systems. In addition, another 10 buses, designed for long distances, have also begun to provide interurban services, specifically between Dubai and Salalah, among other destinations.

The goal over the next few years is to consolidate a reliable and modern public transport system, which is environmentally-friendly and equipped with smart technologies, that contributes to and strengthens the socioeconomic development of Oman.

TOURISM BOOST

The population of Oman, 4,301,825 inhabitants according to data from 2015, is concentrated in the country’s major urban centres: Muscat, the capital, on the northeast coast, Sohar, to the north, and Salalah, in the south. These cities are all port cities, while the latter two are also industrial centres. Other important cities include Nizwa and Duqm. However, the population density is low for its territory of over 309,000 km², similar to that of Italy. It is noteworthy that 44% of residents, almost all in urban areas, are foreign workers in addition to being of a very young age: 68% are under 30 years of age according to data from the National Statistics Centre.

This population has come to the country attracted by the dynamism of its economy which is fifth among the economies of the Persian Gulf and 65th in the world according to the International Monetary Fund. Although it is the fifth exporter of oil in the region, Oman is carrying out various strategies to diversify its economy. These strategies include boosting international tourism, which has grown 12% over the last 15 years according to data from the World Tourism Organization. The sector is expected to account for 3% of GDP by 2020.

The development of a multimodal public transport system is key to achieving this, along with the construction and deployment of hotel and leisure infrastructure around the country. A government agency was created in 2005 for this purpose and is promoting several tourism projects: conference, leisure and sports centres as well as golf courses and hotels. We can highlight, for example, the Oman Convention & Exhibition Centre, the Alila Jebel Akhdar Resort and The W Hotel, in addition to the renovation of some of the major international hotels which belong to the government.

From a visitor’s perspective, Oman boasts several attractions which are not yet well-known worldwide, including a great variety of landscapes and climates, from the inland
desert climate and its wadis and canyons, to the tropical climate in the south or the milder coastal plain climate with practically untouched beaches. Tour operators offer packages that include sports and adventure activities such as scuba diving, cave exploration and trekking, as well as wildlife observation–birds, whales, dolphins, tortoises, etc., as, due to its geographical location, Oman is found on the migration routes of several species.

This is in addition to the urban culture and shopping opportunities offered by the capital, Muscat, which includes music, cinema, theatre, modern shops with international brands and souks, or the traditional markets. The country’s millennia-old history is reflected in the cultural and natural assets declared World Heritage by Unesco, such as the archaeological sites of Bat, Al-Khutm and the Al-Ayn necropolises, located inland, which date back to 3000 B.C.; the 2000-year old falajs or irrigation systems, The Frankincense Trail in Dhofar, to the south; and the fort of the oasis of Bahla, to the west of Muscat, one of the most spectacular among the many located throughout the country.